Malaysian economy to face better prospects in 2024

Published on 20 Dec 2023.

Share Tweet Email

In its Economic Outlook 2024 report released today, RAM Ratings expects Malaysia’s economic momentum to steadily improve heading into next year, benefiting from a potential turnaround in external demand. Leading indicators point to signs that global trade and semiconductor demand have reached their nadir in 2023. Resilient domestic demand, supported by benign inflation and interest rates would also propel growth momentum. We have pencilled growth to reach 4.5%-5.5% in 2024 from an estimated 4.0% this year. 

Risks on the horizon for Malaysia’s growth will hinge largely on the global economy successfully achieving a ‘soft landing’ and avoiding further escalation of geopolitical conflicts. A spike in global food and commodity prices could pressure domestic demand, as will unintended price ripple effects of a poorly-executed retargeting of RON95 subsidies in 2H 2024.

On the fiscal side, RAM estimates fiscal deficit to clock in at 4.2% of GDP in 2024 (2023e: 5.0%), reflecting the fiscal consolidation path of the government. The narrower deficit will mainly be driven by a lower subsidy bill, better managing of other operating expenditures and higher tax revenue collections from an upside in economic conditions next year. With a need to fund critical development projects, government debt will remain relatively sticky at RM1.3 tril in 2024 (62.7% of GDP) and debt servicing not insignificant at 16.1% of total projected revenue in 2024 (2023e: 15.2%). Balancing between future economic growth and fiscal consolidation remains the standing order of the day.

Summary of RAM’s key projections

Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia, Ministry of Finance Malaysia, RAM
Note: 2023e & 2024f figures are RAM projections

 

Analytical contact
Woon Khai Jhek, CFA
(603) 3385 2512
khaijhek@ram.com.my    

Media contact
Sakinah Arifin
(603) 3385 2500
sakinah@ram.com.my

 

About RAM Rating Services Berhad (RAM Ratings)

Established in 1990, RAM Ratings is a leading credit rating agency registered under the Securities Commission’s Guidelines on Credit Rating Agencies. In addition to the provision of credit ratings for corporate bonds and sukuk and their issuers, RAM Ratings also provides research and publications on Islamic finance, fixed income and macro-economic and industry analysis as well as data analytics relating to credit risk, counterparty assessments and other related domains. 

Disclaimer

ALL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this Media Release, RAM Ratings makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this Media Release. RAM Ratings assumes no obligation to update any information or statement contained herein, save for any information required to be disclosed by law.

Published by RAM Rating Services Berhad
© Copyright 2023 by RAM Rating Services Berhad
All rights reserved. This material may not be published, reproduced, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without prior permission.